Monday, January 2, 2017

2016 Silicon Valley Real Estate Year in Review


We hope that you and your family had a wonderful 2016.  It was certainly an eventful year for real estate and here is how the year unfolded and our outlook for 2017!

Year in Review

2016 was filled with highs and lows.  The Spring season started off red hot as lower inventory levels ushered in multiple Buyer offers across the board and strong sale prices for Sellers.  Average home prices hit their highest levels of all time in the Spring.

Summer inventory however spiked to its highest level since 2012 and prices leveled off to their 2015 price points.  This is where the market showed varied levels of performance with a tale of two markets.  Homes under and around the million dollar mark continued to sell quickly garnering multiple offers with above list price winning bids.  There was an especially heavy demand for Single Family Homes in this category.  There are very few neighborhoods left with a Single Family Home for less than a million dollars, Buyers found themselves heading further south or deeper into the East Bay for these homes.  Townhomes have been a property class that has performed very well over the last few years, but showed softness as their price points were hitting levels close to Single Family Homes in certain markets.  Homes in the $1.5M and up range struggled against more inventory in the summer and we saw longer days on market and canceled listings. 

As is traditional with the seasons, inventory levels dropped in the fall and winter.  Inventory continued to clear into the fall and more homes were sold, which continued into the winter months.  There have been a number of investor flipped homes this fall/winter as well as a continued strong demand throughout the year for multi-residential homes.  Demand remained steady this fall and winter overall.

Source: MLS Listings November 2016

Cash Inflows/Outflows from Abroad

Perhaps one of the major developments are the controls around cash inflows/outflows from abroad especially from China.  The crack down actually started back in January of 2015, but now both countries have shut down multiples avenues of cash inflows/outflows in order to prevent money laundering.  US Banks are scrutinizing downpayments heavily which are affecting loan qualifications.  In short, Buyers from this market have not been able to participate in real estate this year due to these constraints.  This equated to less competition and bidding activity especially in the upper end of the market.

Interest Rates

The other major development has been the rise of interest rates.  The Federal Reserve has raised rates by .25% this year and the .25% the year prior.  The year started off with excellent rates in the 3.5% to 3.75% range for a 30-year fixed and we are closing the year at 4.25%.  We have all been accustomed to extremely low interest rates for a very long time.  It is important to take a look at the historical chart of mortgage rates to demonstrate that interest rates are still at historical lows.  For those of you that have not locked in a mortgage, though you missed the absolute bottom, historically you will still do well if you locked in now.   Those of you that are on an Adjustable Mortgage Rate (ARM), you may consider switching to a 30 year fixed as the Federal Reserve is signaling additional increases of .75% in 2017.  It is highly likely that we may not see rates like these for quite some time.  This could be the year that multiple Buyers enter the market in an effort to take advantage of these historically low interest rates.

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis Economic Research, 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States©

US President Elect Donald Trump

Perhaps the biggest news of 2016 is that of President elect Donald Trump.  This is certainly an unpredictable presidency coming in 2017 as this is not our typical president.  The stock market seems to be signaling that he will be good for business and personal finances.  Real Estate is his primary industry and this alignment should be good for this sector as well.  There is much uncertainty on this front as the New Year unfolds.

Technology Microeconomy

Silicon Valley real estate is more of a primary home market rather than an investor centric one.  We continue to have heavy recruiting and hiring from top Technology firms in the area.  2016 saw more Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) activity rather than much on the Initial Public Offerings (IPO’s) side.  This had an impact on housing as the lack of liquidity to Silicon Valley workers reduced Buyers abilities to garner large downpayments to purchase high priced real estate.  2017 could be the year where unicorns seek liquidity and ultimately fuel additional real estate purchases for Silicon Valley workers.

2017 Projections


Despite all of the changes in 2016, we are expecting another strong year for Silicon Valley real estate overall.  The higher price points maybe dependent on the performance of stocks and infusion of IPO’s that could possibly occur in 2017.  The big question for Sellers is how long can prices continue to climb as the last 7 years have continued to show price appreciation.  With interest rates rising, this has a direct impact on affordability.  For Buyers do you take advantage of still historically low rates and enter the market now or wait for a downturn that may or may not come in the short run?  Primary home buying is not always tied to finances as there many other reasons to purchase a home as well.  2017 looks to be another exciting year for Silicon Valley real estate.  We wish you and your family a Happy New Year and we stand ready to assist with your real estate needs!

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Alan has been a Realtor in the Silicon Valley for over 13 years and in the technology industry for over 14 years. He is the Founder of the Alan Wang Realty Group within Keller Williams Realty. He is passionate about helping his clients understand the market direction in order for them to make the best possible strategic decisions on their real estate strategies and execution plans.


Monday, December 12, 2016

Alan Wang Realty Group Featured in Top Agent Magazine!

Honored to be Featured in the Top Agent Magazine.  Head to page 15 and 16 for the section on our team!
http://www.topagentmagazine.com/top-agent-magazine-nationwide-and-international-edition/



Monday, December 5, 2016

Property Taxes Are Due 12/10!

As a friendly reminder, the property tax deadline for filing is Saturday, December 10th. For your convenience, we've included the links below to 6 Bay Area counties:

Regards,
 
Alan Wang Realty Group

Monday, November 7, 2016

Linkedin ProFinder Contest Entry

1. Describe your business. What impact has it had on you, your customers, and/or your community?
We are in the business of helping our customers with the largest and most personal transaction of their lives; the sale or purchase of their homes.  These are homes that their children grow up in, first steps are taken, birthdays are celebrated and memories are made for a lifetime.  Due to how infrequent selling or buying a home occurs, it is often a daunting process for a customer to navigate an extremely steep learning curve.  It is inspiring for us to play such an integral role in such an important event in our clients lives.  It is what gets us up in the morning and our driving force everyday.
2. How would you leverage LinkedIn and LinkedIn ProFinder to maximize the impact of your business?

We were pleased to be one of the earliest Alpha testers of this product.  Our target is that Customers would find our proposals appealing, in order to give us the opportunity for us to have a consultation to see how we can fulfill and exceed their real estate needs.  This could be in regards to helping the customer to list and market their homes for sale, or understanding the customers requirements in the next dream home that they look to purchase.  We want the opportunity to be the team of choice for as many Linkedin customers looking for a real estate professional.

Monday, October 24, 2016

October 2016 Silicon Valley Real Estate Update

As we enter the winter season, the history of our local market points to a slower period in the real estate market, especially as we approach the holidays. This equates to a lower supply of homes on the market in conjunction with a reduced amount of Buyers as well.

Macroeconomy

The economy continues to hold steady in anticipation of this election year.  The Federal Reserve is holding interest rates steady in the short term, while signaling that a change is looming.  At this moment interest rates have held steady with some volatility on a daily basis but steady.  It remains to be seen how much the rate is increased by and even then it will take some time for that to affect mortgages.   Banks could also choose to throttle them up slowly as well.  The jobs reports continued to be mixed, though not drastic enough to point to the economy shifting in either direction.

Technology Microeconomy

The Silicon Valley technology sector has remained stable providing employment and ample opportunities.  The Nutanix initial public offering (IPO) makes this the second local technology IPO of 2016.  There are rumors of a Snapchat or Docusign IPO possibly next year.  Companies such as Uber and Airbnb are the most talked about in this discussion as possible 2017 candidates.  The recent acquisition to monitor is the Linkedin Microsoft acquisition, which is speculated to pay out employee stock plans.  Regardless IPO’s and acquisitions will inject funds towards much needed downpayments for local Buyers who are struggling to purchase a home in the high priced Bay Area.  Regardless, timing wise this would mean that Q3/Q4 of 2017 could be a busy one if these events do indeed unfold.

Local Housing Market

Summer inventory rose to its highest level since 2012.  In September, Buyers seem to have come back slightly in conjunction with a drop in inventory as well as canceled and withdrawn listings.   Many Summer Sellers were holding onto 2015 prices and unwilling to accept the offers that the market was giving them.

Homes with excellent schools in prime locations continue to sell for a premium and in a short amount of time.  Homes that have been fully renovated and move-in ready will garner a higher amount of offers and a price premium as a true differentiator in the marketplace.

Homes priced above $2M have seen longer days on the market and also homes over $1.5M depending on the location.  Single Family Homes less than $1.5M, especially those with good elementary schools, continue to see multiple offers and a good level of competition.  This is due to the fact that this is still an affordable bracket for many single or dual income families in the area.   Properties under the $1M price point continue to have multiple offers especially Single Family Homes.  Condominiums have seen resurgence as Renters are looking for an alternative to high rental costs and looking to leverage the tax benefits of home ownership.

Townhomes that have broken the $1M mark and especially those that approach the $1.5M mark are seeing Buyers pause as they decide whether or not to stretch and go for a Single Family Home instead.

Multi-residential homes continue to sell quickly due to low supply and high demand by investors in the market.  Investors continue to be major players in the bay area.

In Closing


If you are a Buyer it is a great time to look for a home during this season.  Though inventory is lower, Buyers tend to start shifting their focus towards the travels and the holidays, which often equates to less competition for you as a Buyer.  If you are a Seller, depending on your location, the lower inventory could make it so that you are the only house on the market for that given week and garner multiple offers.  The downside is also that the number of Buyers may not be as high as in the Spring season which means that you may have to temper expectations on price.  Reach out to us so that we can advise appropriately on your specific home.  We wish you and your families the best for the rest of the year and thank you for all of your support and referrals!

Join the Conversation!

We always welcome your comments and discussion!  Join the conversation on Linkedin! https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/october-2016-silicon-valley-real-estate-update-alan-wang